Feasible intervention combinations for achieving a safe exit of the Zero-COVID policy in China and its determinants: an individual- based model study (preprint)

Background Although several pathways have been proposed as the prerequisite for a safe phase-out in China, it is not clear which of them are the most important for keeping the mortality rate low, what thresholds should be achieved for these most important interventions, and how do the thresholds change with the assumed key epidemiological parameters and population characteristics.Methods We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission of the Omicron variant in the synthetic population, accounting for the age-dependent probabilities of severe clinical outcomes, waning vaccine-induced immunity, increased mortality rates when hospitals are overburdened, and reduced transmission when self-isolated at home after testing positive. We applied machine learning algorithms on the simulation outputs to examine the importance of each intervention parameter and the feasible intervention parameter combinations for safe exits, which is defined as having mortality rates lower than that of influenza in China (14.3 per 100, 000 persons).Results We identified vaccine coverage in those above 70 years old, number of ICU beds per capita, and the availability of antiviral treatment as the most important interventions for safe exits across all studied locations, although the thresholds of them required for safe exits vary remarkably with the assumed vaccine effectiveness, as well as the age structure, age-specific vaccine coverage, community healthcare capacity of the studied locations.Conclusions The analytical framework developed here can provide the basis for further policy decisions that incorporate considerations about economic costs and societal impacts. Achieving safe exits from the Zero-COVID policy is possible, but challenging for China’s cities. When planning for safe exits, local realities such as the age structure and current age-specific vaccine coverage must be taken into consideration.

Full-spectrum dynamics of the coronavirus disease outbreak in Wuhan, China: a modeling study of 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases (preprint)

Vigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions have largely suppressed the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. We extended the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the transmission dynamics and evaluate the impact of interventions using 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases from December 8, 2019 till March 8, 2020, accounting for presymptomatic infectiousness, and time-varying ascertainment rates, transmission rates, and population movements. The effective reproduction number R0 dropped from 3.54 (95% credible interval: 3.41-3.66) in the early outbreak to 0.27 (0.23-0.32) after full-scale multi-pronged interventions. By projection, the interventions reduced the total infections in Wuhan by 96.1% till March 8. Furthermore, we estimated that 87% infections (lower bound: 53%) were unascertained, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases. The probability of resurgence was 0.33 and 0.06 based on models with 87% and 53% infections unascertained, respectively, assuming all interventions were lifted after 14 days of no ascertained infections. These results provide important implications for continuing surveillance and interventions to eventually contain the outbreak.